Economic Recovery Already Underway
By Donald Luskin
April 18, 2008
(Reposted by www.free-realestate-tips.com)
WHAT A DIFFERENCE a month makes!
Just a month ago yesterday, markets opened to the news that the firm Bear Stearns (BSC1) had been vaporized — and for no better reason than that investors had arbitrarily lost confidence in the venerable brokerage firm and all withdrawn their money from it at the same time. It was only the Federal Reserve stepping in with $30 billion in risk capital that prevented the Bear collapse from taking down world capital markets.
Everyone was already saying that the U.S. economy had fallen into recession. The Bear catastrophe could only make matters far worse.
And yet now, a month later, the economy has not gotten worse. Compared to the bleak expectations then, even just hanging in there would have been an upside surprise. But it’s more than that. Things actually are getting better.
Consider the key earnings reports coming out this earnings season. General Electric’s (GE2) miss was a shocker. But should it have been? Everyone knows its results are dominated by its capital markets subsidiary, so why the surprise when it — like every other bank and broker — took a big hit? The only true surprise was that GE’s management let it be a surprise — they should have warned.
Other than that, the news has been terrific. Look at what’s come out of the technology sector the last couple days. Intel (INTC3), IBM (IBM4) and Google (GOOG5) all surprised big time on the upside. No falloff in world-wide technology demand at Intel and IBM. And no falloff in the consumer sector for Google.
How about this week’s macroeconomic statistics? The Philadelphia Fed’s survey of regional manufacturing activity reported lower yesterday. But the day before, the New York Fed’s comparable survey defied bearish expectations and came in with a neutral reading.
Industrial production was reported as rising 0.3% last month, when it was expected to have declined. That’s a key recession indicator — and it’s just not indicating. The high-tech component of industrial production has been especially strong, currently at all-time highs.
And then there are the markets themselves. Since the panic bottom a month ago yesterday, the S&P 500 has returned 7.1%. The best-performing sectors have been financials, energy and materials, indicating that the credit crisis is mending and that fundamental forces of growth are strong.
The credit crisis is indeed mending. If you invested in safety-first Treasury bonds a month ago, you’ve lost 2.9%. But if you bought risky high-yield corporate bonds — also known disparagingly as “junk bonds” — you’d be up 3.8%. If you were really daring, and bought the supposedly toxic waste that’s been at the heart of the credit crisis — collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) based on subprime mortgages — you’d have done even better, making 6.7%.
The bears hang onto every little scrap of evidence coming out of the financial and housing sectors to bolster their case that we’re already in a recession and headed for a depression. Doesn’t any of this good news count for anything?
The worst is over. It’s more than over. Consider what’s happened in the banking sector. With Merrill Lynch’s big write-off yesterday, and Citigroup’s (C6) this morning, cumulative bank and broker losses from subprime lending and related credit craziness has come to something like $250 billion. That’s quite a trick. According to data reported by the New York Fed, the value of all the subprime and Alt-A mortgages currently in default is only $116 billion. What’s likely happened here is that the banks have taken mark-to-market losses on securities that anticipate much higher foreclosure rates which haven’t happened yet, and may in fact never happen.
And don’t tell me it’s all because the markets expect the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates to zero and keep them there forever, propping up the economy. That’s what markets were expecting a month ago, but not now.
We know precisely what markets are expecting the Fed to do, because we can observe the prices of futures contracts on the Fed funds rate. A month ago, roughly speaking, those futures were priced to expect the Fed to lower interest rates another 75 basis points, to 1.5%, at the FOMC meeting at the end of April — and leave them there for at least a year. Today those same futures are expecting only a 25-basis-point cut at the April FOMC. A year from now, they’re expecting that last cut to have been taken back — and another 25-basis-point rate hike added on for good measure.
When general sentiment is as bad as it is now, the good news kind of sneaks up on you. When it pops out, you tend to ignore it. You get used to the constant drum-beat of doom and gloom. But that’s a huge mistake.
The worst version of it is the kind of economic defeatism that seems to be permeating the primary election campaigns for the presidency. All the candidates are trying to outdo each other in painting a horrible picture of the economy — probably to scare you into voting for them, so they can supposedly fix it.
They’d like you to believe that America has no economic future, that our best years are behind us, that we’ve run out of tricks. But it’s not true. And Google’s big earnings report yesterday proves it.
Look at the billions of dollars being earned by a company that didn’t even exist 10 years ago. I see that money tangibly because I live in Silicon Valley, where Google is headquartered. To me, it’s not just an earnings report. It’s thousands of high-paying jobs. It’s dozens of new buildings being erected all over the landscape here, to house their headlong growth.
There’s no real estate crisis here in Silicon Valley. We’re not depending on subprime mortgages for our homes. We’re dependent on jobs, and salaries, and bonuses and stock options from companies like Google. In other words, we’re betting on good old-fashioned hard work, innovation and growth.
So what if there was some excess home building and home buying? So what if some stupid banks made some stupid loans, and some stupid home buyers took those stupid loans and now can’t pay them back? It’s a problem, I suppose. But in the end it’s a side show. The economy marches on.
And the stock market is going to keep marching right along with it.
Donald Luskin is chief investment officer of Trend Macrolytics, an economics consulting firm serving institutional investors. You may contact him at don@trendmacro.com.